Take Out the Head

You remember how we took out Saddam Heussin's regime in the first months of the war (the part of the war we won)? We took out the head. Strike at the jugular - that was the idea: you kill the brain and the body follows. In that part of the war (the "hot war"), we were pretty successful in taking out whatever state-based military was still fighting.

I'm thinking we need to employ the same strategy against the Republican Regime here at home. Take out the head and the body is damaged. Take out DeLay, Hastert and Santorum - which are all very real targets - and then get to work on the ranks.

We all know DeLay is on the ropes, and now that former Rep. Nick Lampson is running, it looks like an awful fragile 55% DeLay put up in 2004. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/03/AR2005050301617.html) As for Hastert, I say redistrict the shit out of him. They want to play hardball, get rid of three Democrats in Texas and God know how many in Georgia? OK, Denny, meet your new constituents, the Southside of Chicago. And Santorum, he's a gonner - give me a break Rick, you're from Pennsylvania, not Alabama.

Of course, there is one problem with tactic: the Republicans are like one of those creatures in the movies where you take off its head and one just grows right back out.

The Case for Edwards 2008

He can win in the heartland - simple as that. John Edwards, given the chance, to run as a Presidential candidate on a national stage would draw enough poor rural voters back into the D column to swing states such Florida, Iowa, Virginia and - who knows - North Carolina?

Don't believe me? Think that Edwards already proved that his country charm ain't worth much?

Then take it from the Bush team: According to the conservative WSJ, "Bush campaign polling data suggest Mr. Edwards's stumping helped the Democratic ticket more than Mr. Kerry's did. Daron Shaw, a University of Texas political scientist close to the Bush team, has calculated that the average Edwards appearence reduced Mr. Bush's poll standing by .389% in affected media markets, more than double the .169% average dent from Kerry visits."

Given the chance to hit the road - I mean, really hit the back roads and rural towns - which he will do, John Edwards can win in 2008.

Driving a Wedge Through the GOP

The way you win an election is by driving a big wedge through the other guys base. The Post has a good article about the "two types of Republicans - Newt Gingrich and Christine Todd Whitman." Whitman is clearly the one I'd rather have in office - if it had to be aRepublican (I love Shays, for example) - but just for that very reason, I'd rather run a race against the Gingrich's - see: Santorum.

Either way, we gotta start defining this fissure as a large chasm. We've already taken the Whitman Republicans in places like Fairfax County or Montgomery County, PA and it's how John Kerry won New Hampshire.

But perhaps nowhere is this rift more apparent then in the Virginia GOP. You've got, what, three different Republicans running for Governor? If Tim Kaine can capitalize on this, he'll dominate inNovember.

You Don't Need to Move Towards the Center, You Are the Center

Most of America does not exist in a blue or red, metro or retro, liberal or conservative certainty. For a nation that was founded on individualism and freedom, we are much too complex to be defined that cleanly. Each voter, rather, is a quilt of different political experiences and inclinations that lead him or her to certain voting patterns. But we are not, by any means, a nation divided.

There's more --->>

Mudcat on KE04: "You Don't Punt on First Down"

David "Mudcat" Saunders, the rural Democratic genius behind Va. Gov. Mark Warner's 2001 victory, recently commented on the state of Democrats in the South.

South Now: Why did the Democrats loose in 2004?

Mudcat: They can't f'ing count. That's the Democrats' problem. You don't get in the football game and punt on first down. You concede nothing. We condeded 20 states at first and then six more by Labor Day. That's 227 electoral votes. Bush only needed 18 percent of the remaining electoral votes to win.

The full interview is available at South Now. Thanks to Political Wire for the reference.

Vulnerable Seats in 2006

Vulnerable Seats in 2006 CLICK ON IMAGE FOR A LARGER VIEW

This map should give you a good idea of where their -- and our -- vulnerable seats are in 2006. Posted below the U.S. map are maps of Iowa-1 (R-Jim Nussle) and Indiana-9 (R-Mike Sodrel), both of which DemocratsUSA considers "Toss-Ups"

"Potential Vacancies" are Members considering retirement or running for Governor or Senate, such as Katherine Harris (R-FL) and Harold Ford, Jr (D-TN).

"Vulnerable Seats" are generally Members who received less than 55% of the vote in 2004 or are freshmen.

From the Party Committees:
The RNC's ROMP (Retain Our Majority Program), Reps.
Fresmen,
-Michael Fitzpatrick (Pa.)
-David Reichart (Wash.)
-Michael Sodrel (Ind.)
Incumbents,
-Bob Beauprez (Colo.)
-Jim Gerlach (Pa.)
-Marilyn Musgrave (Colo.)
-Anne Northup (Ky.)
-Jon Porter (Nev.)
-Rick Renzi (Ariz.)
-Rob Simmons (Conn.)

The DNC's Frontline 10, Reps.
Freshmen,
-John Barrow (Ga.)
-Melissa Bean (Ill.)
-Brian Higgins (N.Y.)
-Charlie Melancon (La.)
-John Salazar (Colo.)
Incumbents,
-Leonard Boswell (Iowa)
-Chet Edwards (Tex.)
-Stephanie Herseth (S.D.)
-Jim Matheson (Utah)
-Dennis Moore (Kan.)

Vulnerable Republican Seats - East

CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW

Vulnerable Republican Seats - Midwest

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Vulnerable Republican Seats - West

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Vulnerable Republican Seats - South

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